Cereal self-sufficiency in Arab Countries: Evidence from a dynamic difference GMM approach within a food systems framework
Keywords:
Food Security, Cereal Self-Sufficiency, Arab Countries, Difference GMM, Food SystemsAbstract
Food security remains a major challenge in Arab countries due to high cereal import dependence, demographic pressures, and exposure to external shocks. This study examines the determinants of cereal self-sufficiency in 17 Arab countries over the period 2010–2024 using a Difference GMM approach within a Food Systems Framework. The results reveal significant persistence in cereal self-sufficiency, indicating that past performance strongly influences current outcomes. Rural population share exerts a positive and statistically significant effect, whereas political stability is negatively associated with cereal self-sufficiency, reflecting contrasting food-security strategies across Arab economies. By contrast, population growth, water stress, GDP per capita growth, food price inflation, and cereal yields do not exhibit statistically significant effects. The findings suggest that cereal self-sufficiency is driven primarily by demographic and institutional factors rather than conventional production and macroeconomic variables. The study highlights the need for integrated policies combining rural development, effective governance, and long-term food-system resilience.
Downloads
References
1) Allen, T. (2011). Virtual Water: Tackling the Threat to Our Planet's Most Precious Resource. I.B. Tauris, London.
2) Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
3) Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2019). Food security in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries: Challenges and prospects. Journal of Food Security, 7(5), 159–169. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfs-7-5-2
4) Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022a). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food security: Towards more sustainable and resilient food systems? Foods, 11(15), Article 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11152301
5) Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022b). Water management in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Challenges and prospects. In Current Directions in Water Scarcity Research (Vol. 5, pp. 525–540). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91838-6.00020-6
6) Ben Hassen, T., El Bilali, H., Daher, B., & Burkart, S. (2025). Sustainable and resilient food systems in times of crises. Frontiers in Nutrition, 12, Article 1564950. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2025.1564950
7) Eibl, F., Hatab, S., & Hertog, S. (2022). Political economy and development. In M. S. Lynch (Ed.), The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research Since the Arab Uprisings (pp. 132–155). Oxford University Press.
8) El Bilali, H., & Ben Hassen, T. (2024). Regional agriculture and food systems amid the COVID19 pandemic: The case of the Near East and North Africa region. Foods, 13(2), Article 297. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13020297
9) Ericksen, P. J. (2008). Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research. Global Environmental Change, 18(1), 234–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.09.002
10) ESCWA. (2022a). Arab Food Security: Vulnerabilities and Pathways. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Beirut. https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pdf/arab-food-security-vulnerabilitiespathways-english.pdf
11) ESCWA. (2022b). Trade for Food Security and Nutrition Security in the Arab Region. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Beirut. https://www.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/event/materials/Report-Trade-foodsecurity%26nutrition.pdf
12) FAO. (2008). An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
13) FAO. (2015). The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2015–16: Food Self-Sufficiency and International Trade – A False Dichotomy? Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ea722624-2814-4cc5ba44-90a79a2c2de5/content
14) FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2022). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022: Repurposing Food and Agricultural Policies to Make Healthy Diets More Affordable. FAO, Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en
15) FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2022). The State of Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture in the Near East and North Africa Region. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0680en
16) FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, & UNESCWA. (2023). Near East and North Africa – Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition 2023: Statistics and Trends. FAO, Cairo. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc8039en
17) Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S. M., & Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967), 812–818. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185383
18) Harrigan, J. (2014). The Political Economy of Arab Food Sovereignty. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137339386
19) HLPE. (2017). Nutrition and Food Systems. A report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome.
20) Ingram, J. (2011). A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change. Food Security, 3(4), 417–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9
21) IPCC. (2022). Africa. In H. O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama (Eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1285–1455). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
22) Rauschendorfer, J., & Krivonos, E. (2022). Implications of the War in Ukraine for Agrifood Trade and Food Security in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0955en
23) Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2011). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3(2), 220–246. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1876404511200046
24) Khouri, N., Shideed, K., & Kherallah, M. (2011). Food security: Perspectives from the Arab world. Food Security, 3(Suppl. 1), S1–S6. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-010-0101-4
25) Roodman, D. (2009). A note on the theme of too many instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 135–158. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00542.x
26) Rosegrant, M. W., Koo, J., Cenacchi, N., Ringler, C., Robertson, R. D., Fisher, M., Cox, C. M., Garrett, K., Perez, N. D., & Sabbagh, P. (2014). Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298477
27) Sen, A. (1981). Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford University Press.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 The International tax journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
